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      FOREX-Dollar rallies as economic gloom fans safety bid
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<h1>FOREX-Dollar rallies as economic gloom fans safety bid</h1>
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        <span class="timestamp">Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:24pm EDT</span>
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<span class="focusParagraph"><p>  
</p>

</span><span id="midArticle_0"></span><p> * Euro hits 8-month low vs dollar, sinks below key level</p><span id="midArticle_1"></span><p> * Euro outlook seen soft; could test 2010 lows</p><span id="midArticle_2"></span><p> * Australian and New Zealand dollars tumble
 (Updates prices, adds quotes)</p><span id="midArticle_3"></span><p> By Julie Haviv</p><span id="midArticle_4"></span><p> NEW YORK, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The dollar bounced broadly on
Thursday while the euro tumbled to an eight-month low as
mounting concerns about the global economy drove investors to
seek safety and liquidity.</p><span id="midArticle_5"></span><p> A dismal economic outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve
coupled with new signs of slowing in China and Germany spurred
risk aversion, pushing European shares down 4 percent to a
two-year trough and U.S. stocks down more than 3 percent.</p><span id="midArticle_6"></span><p> "The sharp capitulation over the past 24 hours reflects the
severe anxiety in the market and explains why investors are
buying dollars even after the Federal Reserve announced a new
form of stimulus," said Kathy Lien, director of currency
research at GFT Forex.</p><span id="midArticle_7"></span><p> "It is difficult to reverse market sentiment when it turns
this negative and no major policymaking body has anything
positive to say."</p><span id="midArticle_8"></span><p> The euro was also stung by lingering uncertainty about
whether Greece will receive its next tranche of aid from its
creditors, which is crucial to the country avoiding default.</p><span id="midArticle_9"></span><p> "The increasing likelihood of Greece eventually defaulting
on its debt is keeping the single currency biased lower across
the board," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at
Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.</p><span id="midArticle_10"></span><p> "Overall, the outlook for Europe remains bad enough to
continue overshadowing the very anemic growth outlook in the
U.S. and likely keep the single currency's downward trend in
tact."</p><span id="midArticle_11"></span><p> The euro slid through the 50 percent retracement level of
the move from the June 2010 low to the May 2011 peak, hitting a
session low of $1.3384, its weakest since Jan. 20.</p><span id="midArticle_12"></span><p> In early afternoon New York trade, the euro traded down 1
percent at $1.3432 <a href="/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=EUR&destCurr=USD">EUR=EBS</a> on electronic platform EBS.</p><span id="midArticle_13"></span><p> Jens Nordvig, global head of fx strategy at Nomura
Securities in New York, said the firm's target for the
euro/dollar in the fourth quarter is $1.30, but called the
downside risk "very significant" in the medium-term.</p><span id="midArticle_14"></span><p> The macro environment is such that the euro/dollar could
weaken further over the next three to four months, testing the
lows from 2010 around $1.18, he said.</p><span id="midArticle_15"></span><p> "Against this background we are adding to short EUR/USD
exposure, in a way which provides significant leverage to a
substantial depreciation in the next 3-4 months," he said.</p><span id="midArticle_0"></span><p> The U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday it will shift its
portfolio toward longer-term debt to bolster the economy. The
Fed's program, dubbed "Operation Twist", was intended to put
more downward pressure on long-term interest rates. For
details, see [ID:nS1E78J25W]</p><span id="midArticle_1"></span><p> Fueling risk aversion was the Fed's warning of
"significant" risks to the economy,.</p><span id="midArticle_2"></span><p> An important dollar-positive by-product of the Fed's
program is higher short-term rates. The Fed's not increasing
the money supply supported the dollar.</p><span id="midArticle_3"></span><p> "It's all risk-off. The markets have not taken what the Fed
had to say about the economy very well," said Neil Mellor,
currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "The break
below the $1.35 level for the euro/dollar could see it settle
in a new $1.30-1.35 range in coming months."</p><span id="midArticle_4"></span><p> Currencies linked to global economic growth declined, with
the New Zealand dollar <a href="/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=NZD&destCurr=USD">NZD=D4</a> falling to its lowest level
since May 17, and the Australian dollar <a href="/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=AUD&destCurr=USD">AUD=D4</a> slumping to
its lowest level since March 17.</p><span id="midArticle_5"></span><p> A European Central Bank study, co-authored by Executive
Board member Juergen Stark, said the whole common currency
project was in danger due to fiscal imbalances.
[ID:nF9E7GJ014]</p><span id="midArticle_6"></span><p> Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the 17 countries using
the euro fell sharply in September. [ID:nB5E7HMO1U]</p><span id="midArticle_7"></span><p> Adding to the gloom, data showed the pace of business
activity in the euro zone's two biggest economies, Germany and
France, slowing. [ID:nL9E7I401Y] [ID:nL9E7I401W]</p><span id="midArticle_8"></span><p> &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^</p><span id="midArticle_9"></span><p> For more stories on Fed policy, see:          [FED/AHEAD]</p><span id="midArticle_10"></span><p> GRAPHIC-Fed balance sheet: <a href="http://link.reuters.com/cub62s">link.reuters.com/cub62s</a></p><span id="midArticle_11"></span><p> FACTBOX-Doing the Twist and other tools:  [ID:nS1E78F0SO]</p><span id="midArticle_12"></span><p> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><span id="midArticle_13"></span><p> The dollar was down 0.1 percent against the yen at 76.34
<a href="/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=JPY&destCurr=USD">JPY=</a>. With the yen not far from the record high of 75.94 set
last month, investors are on high alert for intervention by the
Bank of Japan to contain the currency's strength.
 (Additional reporting by <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=nick.olivari&">Nick Olivari</a> and Anirban Nag in
London; Editing by Leslie Adler)


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